Home Movies Award Season What the Aggregate Model Predicts | Oscar Predictions

What the Aggregate Model Predicts | Oscar Predictions

We’ve used an aggregate model to predict the winners at the Academy Awards since the 2017 ceremony. In those two years predicting the Oscars, our model has been largely successful. In 2017 the aggregate model correctly predicted 17 of the 24 categories, then using that data to influence the weighting of the aggregate model in 2018 the model correctly predicted 20 of the 24 categories. Given the nature of the model, we optimistically assume that our weighting adjustments for 2019 using experience from the past 2 years will further improve our model’s success. So here’s to over hopefully over 20 correctly predicted categories!

Consensus Categories

Of the 17 categories, we’ve deemed “Consensus Categories” in the past only one have we predicted incorrectly and that was the wildly unpredictable La La Land Best Picture upset in 2017. Given our 94% success rate, you’d best trust us about these categories.

Category Predicted Victor Win Chance
Animated Feature Film Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse 86%
Makeup and Hairstyling Vice 87%
Music-Original Song Shallow 90%
Short Film-Animated Bao 84%

Expected Categories

These categories have a clear winner expected to win but there is enough noise that it might be worth considering the spoilers, especially when there is one identifiable spoil. Of the “Expected Categories” in the past two years the aggregate model has been correct 63% of the time, which is good but re-emphasizes the value in carefully considering the competition.

Category Predicted Victor Win Chance Notes
Best Actor-In a Leading Role Rami Malek 60% Christian Bale has a 26% chance to spoil Rami Malek’s chance at a little Gold Man.
Best Actress-In a Leading Role Glenn Close 69% Olivia Colman (17%) & Lady Gaga (11%) both threaten Glenn Close’s 7th attempt at the prize.
Actor-In Supporting Role Mahershala Ali 64% Early favorite Richard E. Grant has a 23% chance to steal Ali’s 2nd statue.
Actress-In Supporting Role Regina King 66% We could see a surprise win from either Rachel Weisz or Amy Adams (19% & 9% respective chances).
Cinematography Roma 77% Fellow Foreign Film Cold War offers the greatest threat with a 9% chance to win.
Directing Alfonso Cuarón 74% Veteran Spike Lee has a real shot with a 23% chance to get his long desired prize.
Foreign Language Film Roma 69% Again Cold War threatens Roma’s dominance with a 26% chance for the Polish film.
Music-Original Score If Beale Street Could Talk 62% A strong category this year, Black Panther (19%) or BlacKkKlansman (12%) could also win.
Visual Effects Avengers: Infinity War 61% With a 28% chance First Man has the greatest possibility to upset a favorite in these categories.
Writing-Adapted Screenplay BlacKkKlansman 68% If Beale Street Could Talk (16%) & Can You Ever Forgive Me? (9%) both have a real shot here.
Writing-Original Screenplay The Favourite 69% If Green Book (19% chance) wins here it could indicate a Best Picture victory.

Chance Categories

Although our model boasts less confidence in the categories within this section in both of the previous years it was 75% successful, which is nothing to scoff at. That being said these films are far from sure winners and careful consideration should be put into predicting the upsets in these categories.

Category Predicted Victor Win Chance Notes
Best Picture Roma 53% Anything could happen with the Preferential Ballot; Green Book has the best chance at 24%.
Costume Design* The Favourite 48% Yikes! With Black Panther’s 46% chance to win this category is nearly a coin flip.
Documentary Feature* Free Solo 47% 5 strong docs, 3 contenders; RBG has a 34% shot & rightful winner Minding the Gap has a 18% chance.
Production Design The Favourite 47% The Beautiful Wakanda gives Black Panther a 38% chance & 1970s Mexico gives Roma a 10% shot.
Short Film-Live Action Marguerite 53% Skin has a 26% chance & the controversial Detainment has a 9% chance of causing further lawsuits.

Decision Categories

This group of categories has been quite small in the past, but this year it includes 4 films, more than the last two years combined. These categories will likely decide the oscar competitions you enter as they are among the most difficult to predict. Our model has been correct two thirds of the time in this category, granted the sample size so far is small.

Category Predicted Victor Win Chance Notes
Documentary Short Subject* Period. End of Sentence. 38% 3 true competitors: Black Sheep 29%, End Game 13%, A Night at the Garden 12%
Film Editing Bohemian Rhapsody 40% No one predicted Green Book & all other competition has about a 20% chance to win the Oscar.
Sound Editing First Man 36% The popular A Quiet Place has a 25% chance & the less popular Bohemian Rhapsody has a 23% chance.
Sound Mixing Bohemian Rhapsody 41% First Man (24%), A Star Is Born (19%), or Roma (13%) could sneak in a win in this category.


*The following races are the closest and likely the hardest to call:

  • Costume Design with a 2% spread between The Favourite and Black Panther
  • Documentary Feature with a 13% spread between Free Solo and Minding the Gap
  • Documentary Short Subject with a 9% spread between Period. End of Sentence. and Black Sheep
  • Production Design with a 8% spread between The Favourite and Black Panther
  • Sound Editing with a 13% spread between the top 3 contenders First Man, A Quiet Place, and Bohemian Rhapsody

Armed with this advice you are bound to win your office’s Oscar Prediction Competition. You can also use this as a guide for our Oscar Prediction Contest and try to figure out where we are wrong. If you haven’t entered yet follow the link to enter now for your chance to win a copy of the best picture on Blu Ray.

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